veilles / 01 Oct 2012
ZenithOptimedia releases september 2012 advertising expenditure forecasts
Global advertising to grow 4.6% in 2013, led by developing markets and digital media
Global ad expenditure growth forecast to strengthen over the next two years, rising from 3.8% in 2012 to 4.6% in 2013 and 5.2% in 2014
Developing markets to grow by 8% in 2013, and internet advertising by 15%
Eurozone ad expenditure to return to slow growth in 2013 after decline in 2012
The US to contribute 29% of adspend growth between 2011 and 2014
Developing markets to contribute 59% of adspend growth between 2011 and 2014, and increase their share of global adspend from 33% to 36%
Internet’s share of expenditure to rise from 16.0% in 2011 to 21.4% in 2014, exceeding 30% in seven markets
European football championship, Olympics and US elections to help television attract a record 40.4% of global adspend in 2012
ZenithOptimedia predicts global ad expenditure will grow 4.6% in 2013, reaching US$525 billion by the end of the year. As has been the case since the economic downturn began in 2007, this growth will be led by developing markets, which we forecast to grow by 8% on average in 2013. We expect Central & Eastern Europe to bounce back after a tough 2012 with 7.4% growth in 2013, while Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) grows by 8.2%, and Latin America grows by 10.1%.
North America has had a particularly strong 2012 thanks to record Olympic audiences and heavier than expected political advertising in the US. Despite the tough comparison, we still expect solid 3.6% growth from North America in 2013.
Digital media – particularly internet advertising – are supplying most of the growth in spend by medium. We forecast internet advertising to grow by 15.1% in 2013, while traditional media grow by 2.3%.
We have reduced our forecast for global growth in 2012 to 3.8%, from the 4.3% we published in June. Advertisers have cut spending in the eurozone in response to further economic weakness, and we now expect eurozone spend to shrink 3.1% over the course of this year, compared to the 1.1% decline we forecast in June. Now that advertisers have recalibrated their expectations for future growth in the region, we expect budgets to resume slow 0.9% growth in 2013, strengthening to 2.3% in 2014, assuming the eurozone remains intact.
“Advertisers are broadly continuing to invest, despite the global economic concerns and issues,” says Steve King, Global Chief Executive Officer for ZenithOptimedia Group. “However, they are seeking to ensure that any expenditures are delivering strong return on investment. The US continues to deliver solid growth. This, combined with the growth in developing markets and in digital media, has helped mitigate the drop in eurozone spending.”